Will,
Great lookin, can’t wait to see it in person!
Now for the weather…
SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)…
AS MENTIONED ABOVE…THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION EARLY TODAY. AS THIS HAPPENS…PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AND POSSIBLY
A PEAK OF SUNSHINE BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. HOWEVER…THE
UPPER LOW WILL CONT TO MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING MORE COLD AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE BAY AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS…THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP CLOSER TO 2000 FEET. THEREFORE…AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. BY TONIGHT…PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH AS
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVE EASTWARD. ONE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT SO TO SPEAK…WILL BE THE POSSIBLE BREAK WITH PRECIP AND
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IMPACTING SNOW
TOTALS. THE BREAK IN THE ACTION CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A DISTINCT WESTERN EDGE ON AREA RADARS. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED DEPENDING UPON THE BREAK.
ONE CHANGE WITH THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TO DRASTICALLY SLOW DOWN
THE NEXT SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
CWA BY LATE SATURDAY AND NOW THE LATEST RUNS DELAYS IT UNTIL ALMOST
SUNDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE IT…A DEEPER SYSTEM APPEARS
TO BE DIGGING MORE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SLOWING DOWN. ONE
THING IS FOR SURE…SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE LATE SATURDAY AS SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTER 00Z SUNDAY…ISENTROPIC
LIFT AT 295K BEGINS AND REALLY GETS CRANKING BY 12Z SUNDAY. EXPECT
PRECIP TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
HIGH ENOUGH THAT WINTER WEATHER WILL NOT BE A CONCERN EXCEPT OVER
THE HIGHEST PEAKS. IF MODEL QPF IS CORRECT…MUCH OF THE REGION
COULD SEE 0.5 TO ALMOST 2 INCHES OF PRECIP ON SUNDAY. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TERRAIN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION TO IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL…WINDS INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE 50 KTS OR GREATER AT 925MB AND 25
TO 30 KTS AT THE SURFACE. IF THIS CONTINUES…THE NEXT SHIFT MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. ATTM IT IS
JUST A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT BEING IN THE 4/5TH PERIOD TO ISSUE HIGH
WIND WATCH. THE STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE RAINFALL WILL LAST MUCH OF
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH REMAIN OFF THE COAST.